Pokémon Illustrators & Their Autographs (END)

How to Approach Pricing an Autograph

Here’s the part many of you are likely here for… how to price an autographed card. While there is not going to be a catch-all answer to this, we can provide a starting point. Using the data presented in this article, we conducted, interpreted, and fine-tuned a regression model to predict the final sale price of a card, given a few key variables (which you can use to value autographs yourself, within reason).

NOTE: this portion gets a little math intensive… so if you would rather just get to the formula you can use for rough calculations, scroll down to the bottom of this section. You have been warned.

 Multiple regression analysis was used to test if Sketch, Desirability, Card Grade, Auto Grade, and Market Value of the Card significantly predicted the final sale price of Mitsuhiro Arita autographed cards. The results of the regression indicated the five predictors explained 77.4% of the variance (R2 = .774, F(5, 42) = 24.964, p <.001). It was found that Sketches significantly predicted pricing (β = .236, p = .009), as did Desirability (β = .340, p < .002), and Market Value of Card (β = .508, p <.001). Additional analysis found no statistically significant relationship between PSA Pop and Final Sale price. The remaining 22.6% of variability we are unable to explain is present due to factors that cannot be predicted (time of day an auction ends, bid variance, economic impacts, etc.)

The following formula was obtained during the analysis to predict the sale price of any given card signed by Arita. All one has to do is plug in the relevant values, do the addition and multiplication and you should end up with a rough estimate of the card value. Descriptions of how to insert your given values are below the formula.

 Final Sale Price = 540*(Sketch) + 130*(Card Grade) + 40*(Auto Grade) + 1.8*(Card Market Value) + 141*(Desirability) – 139

 The values of variables are calculated as follows.

• Sketch: 0 if no Sketch, 1 if Sketched
• Card Grade: 0 if AUTH, 1 if PSA 6, 2 if PSA 7, 3 if PSA 8, 4 if PSA 9, 5 if PSA 10
• Auto Grade: 0 if AUTH, 1 if PSA 6, 2 if PSA 7, 3 if PSA 8, 4 if PSA 9, 5 if PSA 10
• Card Market Value: Current Market Value ($)
• Desirability: Scale of 1-10 given overall desirability of the card (subjective)

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To see an example of how to use this, let’s see this put into action with a hypothetical card: A PSA 8 AUTO 9 Arita Signed English Base Set Charizard.

Our variable values would be as follows:

 Sketch: 0

• Card Grade: 3
• Auto Grade: 4
• Card Market Value: 450
• Desirability: 9

 Now, we just plug and play!

 Final Sale Price = 540*(0) + 130*(3) + 40*(0) + 1.8*(450) + 141*(9) - 139

Final Sale Price = 0 + 390 + 0+ 810 + 1410 - 139

Final Sale Price = 2330

 Using this model, we predict that the final sale price of a PSA 8 Auto AUTH Arita signed Charizard will be $2,330. Looking at the sales data, the average sale for a signed Base Set Zard is just under $2,000. Given that we would expect an increase in price due to the higher grade, this seems to be a fairly good estimation.

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 Not all cards will line up this perfectly, as that is the nature of the 77.4% variability explained using this model. BUT, it is better than nothing and is a good place for you guys to start when trying to price out autographs from the most popular illustrator!

 Thanks you for taking the time to read this blog.  We are open to different opinions and views.  We are confident in our math and figures. We will update this as more data become available.

 Please feel free to reach out to us, if you have questions, comments of concerns.